Core positions are stocks that we feel have the most favorable risk-reward profile. We concentrate our capital in these companies and hold for anywhere between 3 and 6 months seeking 100-500%+ returns. We provide updated research reports as the investment progresses, be sure to stay tuned for the new reports. We like to trade the ranges from time to time to protect profits and avoid bag holding.
*We are monitoring for activity on LJPC and will load the boat if given the opportunity in the $3s. Anticipated earnings is some time in the first week of March
*The XBI has receded 20% since February 9th. Due to the massive drop, many individual stocks are taking a substantial beating. During times like this we traditionally try to consolidate in positions we are most comfortable with such as BCRX and have some cash ready to buy stocks that get disproportionally effected. While the beatdown has been immense, historically things turn back around. If your thesis hasn’t changed on a stock, but the price has gone down, we often find ourselves weathering the storm. Feel free to contact us on our email or in the chat for any questions or insights on our personal strategy
Core Positions: 3/04/21
- Added to position again today in the high $10s as shares dipped due to the broader markets
- Participated in Cowen’s 41st Healthcare Conference today, for a transcript click here
- Cowen initiated a $16 price target based on Orladeyo alone, noting $25+ potential if the rest of the pipeline performs. The report was more than 50 pages, a unique report coming from analysts when most release a short thesis. Cowen utilized consultants and a widely skilled team to verify the potential for Orladeyo and concluded that $600m+ is within reach
- They believe 50% market penetration is in reach
- Bofa updated their BCRX standing with a $13+ price target and a peak sales forecast for Orladeyo to $640m from $400m
- Since February 8, 2021, the XBI has receded from nearly $180 to $130. During this time BCRX has demonstrated strength
- Submitted marketing authorization in the U.K. for Orladeyo as EU approval looms
- An S-3ASR on 3/01/21 surfaced. S-3ASR are an automatic shelf registration. Overall we believe the likelihood of dilution near term is low as last weeks call management revealed substantial cash and said they “have many levers to pull.”
- Received a positive opinion from CHMP for Orladeyo, suggesting a high likelihood of EU approval where Orladeyo has orphan drug designation (exclusivity)
- Received an upgraded price target from Piper to $15 which was a 50% increase
- Earnings announced 2/25/21. This report was inline with our expectations. Shares recovered over $11 earlier in the day but sold off as the market in general got beaten up. Overall we found that management displayed confidence in Orladeyo sales, upcoming Factor D data and reaffirmed our thesis. We are continuing to add significant dips.
- $303 million, providing runway to 2023
- BCX9930 dose ranging trial has fully enrolled 16 patients, data to be presented March 22, 2021 at R&D day
- For a link to todays transcript and conference call, click here
- Sheridan had a form 4 surface, revealing a pre planned sale, this doesn’t change our thesis
- A form 4 surfaced for BABU YARLAGADDA on 2/23/21
- Marburg trial was marked as completed, leaving some bulls to speculate on the possibility of Priority Review Voucher down the road
- BCX9930 trial was updated on 2/19/21 revealing the trial was marked completed January 25th, 2021 and increased patients from 148 to 168
- Presenting at conferences on March 11th
- Several 13G’s surfaced, revealing increased stakes from places like Blackrock
- 13G surfaced revealing Vanguard has increased their stake (2/10/21)
- P2 KALV data surfaced. In our opinion this data looked to be cherry picked and is still a far ways off from materializing into a concern for Orladeyo. Patients largely utilized rescue treatment and several other holes which make the data unconcerning to Orladeyo market stake in our opinion
- Announced a label extension for Rapivab for patients 6 months and older (2/3/21)
- For an updated research report published 1/31/21, click here
- Sarissa Capital revealed a 4.5m share add to their position, bringing their total up to 5% ownership in BCRX as per a 13G filed. We believe this demonstrated confidence in the future value of Biocryst
- Orladeyo is now approved in Japan, granting access to 2,500 patients who have no other treatment options and also triggering $15 million cash upfront from our partner (Tori) as well as high royalties
- Click here for the JPM webcast transcript
- Presented at JPM, highlighting a strong financial position through at least 2023, anticipating Japan approval this month (our guess is roughly January 23rd based on historical PMDA approvals in January) and more. Stonehouse also emphasized the 2500 known patients in Japan which have no current solution on market. BCRX received a $15 million milestone payment from Tori once/if approved and Japan as well as royalties.
- Dr Marc Riedl, MD Ms KOL HAE and other respected workers in the space have begun to express their enthusiasm as for Orladeyo. We perceive this as bullish as these people work with patients on a daily basis
- Awareness of HAE continues to grow with sites like “Pharmacytimes.com” recognizing Orladeyo as a significant step for patients
- Ultimately we see a future for Galidesivir and stockpiling under other indications as it remains to be a valuable antiviral
- Released Phase 1 news for BCX9250 trial in FOP yesterday saying the drug was found to be safe
- A flurry of Form 4s in the form of option exercises and more took place last week, potentially suggesting the floor is setting in
- Presented at JMP Securities Hematology Summit, highlighting excitement for their Factor D asset
- Announced $325 million royalty financing deal from Royalty Pharma and Athyrium Capital Management. The deal includes $125 million upfront in cash, reducing the possibility of near term dilution and features 8.75% on the first sales up to $350 million, 2.75% on sales $350-550 million, tiered percent for certain territories and 1% on global net sales of BCX9930 if approved. We want to highlight that this deal is almost 1/2 of what BCRX’s market cap was about a week and a half ago and conveys a strong message of optimism for their upcoming sales which have likely already begun.
- FDA proved Berotralstat! $485k/ annual per patient
- ReleasedFactor D presentation on Sunday at ASH
- Evercore ISI initiated a buy rating and $12 price target
- Several directors took common stock awards as opposed to cash payouts in the form of form 4’s
- It seems now that BCRX has the best oral factor D inhibitor out there. This is clearly not factored into the company’s valuation as its market cap is under $700M and considering Alexion (AXN) paid nearly $1B last year to acquire Achillion Pharmaceuticals (ACHN)’s oral factor D inhibitor. We learned recently to that it was discontinued from clinical development to due a lack of efficacy.
- Sultan published his latest research into BCRX and its oral preventative HAE therapy (Orladeyo)
- Found the common drug application submitted to the Canadian regulatory authorities for approval of Takhzyro in Canada. Takhzyro is one of the top preventative medications on market. Reading through it bolsters the bull thesis for BCRX and Orladeyo. I highly recommend reading through it.
- Announced fast track designation for BCX9930 in PNH on 8/3/20
- 48-week data showed robust and durable reductions in HAE attacks and increases in quality of life scores in patients taking Orladeyo.
- Two patient surveys presented showed high market receptivity for Orladeyo and favorable market conditions with respect to existing therapies
- PT= $15-30+ (0-6 months)
MS Money Move and its Officers, as well as its affiliates are not registered financial advisors. Our posts should serve as educational material to help you conduct due diligence research. Posts and articles are not directives or recommendations to invest in any security. We reserve the right to buy or sell any security for ourselves without any notification except when required by law. We are not responsible for the action of our affiliates. Investment theses may change due to the variable nature of the securities market. Because of this there is great risk when investing in stocks and options which can result is capital loss. Additionally, past performance by MS Money Moves or any security is not a predictor of future performance. Everyone should conduct their own research and due diligence before making an investment decision. We recommend you consult a financial advisor regarding any investment action.
The biotech sector is especially volatile. Stock prices may fluctuate substantially based on material or nonmaterial developments. We encourage everyone to familiarize themselves with clinical trial processes, relevant terminology, FDA/SEC rules and regulations, and the general processes of drug & therapy development/approval. Always do independent research in a security prior to investing.