Markets pushed upwards today fueled by optimism found in some of Pelosi’s remarks in regard to stimulus deal looking increasingly likely. A slight pullback took place after an update surface saying Pelosi is seeing a path to a deal but the timeline may slip past her self imposed deadline today. Earnings are beginning to captivate some investors focus as giants like Netflix miss recent estimates for subscribers, suggesting a potential slow down in their recently observed boost fueled by the pandemic. Although giants like Netflix are witnessing some new headwinds, investors are still finding opportunity with companies like SNAP which witnessed a 22% surge on an unexpected earnings beat today.
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High risk, most speculative play.
Generally companies with market caps under
$100M and weak cash positions (under $20M)
Medium risk. Decent cash position (over $20M),
present a decent trade-setup, and ideally have catalysts
Lower risk relative to yellow and red rated trades.
These trades are supported by strong underlying
fundamentals and have upcoming catalysts. Ideally,
there is a nice technical setup too.
- An entry alert at $14.80-4.85 went out earlier today. The stock closed flat/slightly green for the day and within our entry range
- CHNG is a commercial-stage healthcare technology company. Through its Change Healthcare Platform CHNG provides data solutions for healthcare providers
- Reported strong Fiscal 2021 First Quarter earnings in which the company generated $694M in total revenue
- Teamed up with Microsoft and Adobe to deliver a seamless consumer and financial engagement platform for healthcare care providers
- Last week Change acquired Nucleus.io (a leader in cloud-based native imaging tech) creating the first end-to-end cloud-native Enterprise Imaging platform
- Within the COVID-10 landscape, we feel that Change is positioned for additional growth in 2020 and beyond, evidence of which was seen in September.
- On 9/9/20 management increased its financial guidance for 2Q20 and FY21 and was awarded a multi-year contract from Vizient.
- On 9/10 the company announced that its utilization of AI tech decreased its administrative burden of case management (making the business more efficient)
- Most recently the company broadened its services by allow pharmacies to manage COVID-19 tests billing with their Rx claims processes.
- The technicals/chart indicate the stock is amid a trend reversal to the upside (MACD crossing up on the 1-hr chart and the price is above the 20, 50, and 200-day SMAs)
- Of note, the company has a significant amount of debt related to substantial M&A activity in the past.
- Commercial-stage specialty pharmaceutical company. On 6/19/20 the company had its first product (Gimoti) approved by the FDA.
- On 1/23/20 EVOK entered into a commercialization agreement with Eversana. Per the terms of the 5-year deal, Eversana would handle the commercialization activities of gimoti.
- EVOK maintains the rights to gimoti and keeps 80% of the profits. Additionally, upon approval, a $5M revolving credit facility became available to EVOK.
- As a nasal spray, gimoti is the first non-oral treatment outpatient treatment for diabetic gastroparesis
- On 7/15/20 EVOK entered a commercial manufacturing agreement with Patheon (a division of Thermo Fisher Scientific)
- As of 6/30/20, EVOK had $8M in cash providing a runway into 2Q21 (without consideration of gimoti revenue or the $5M credit)
- Gimoti was launched in 4Q20 (Oct 1 thru Dec 31). Investors anticipate that management might share some insights into the strength of the launch at the upcoming 3Q20 earnings report/conference call (~11/11/20)
- Support to watch = $4.30
- Risk estimate: Yellow
- PT= $5-7 (0-3 weeks)
- Commercial-stage medical device company. Its lead product ( Rapid Acoustic Pulse (“RAP”)) uses rapid shockwaves to expedite the tattoo removal process.
- The RAP device was cleared for commercial use in May of 2019
- The company is planning its commercial launch for 1H21
- In addition to using the technology for tattoo removal, SOLY plans on applying it for cellulite reduction. This latter application is pending FDA clearance.
- Data from a pivotal study (reported 6/15/20) evaluating the RAP device’s ability to reduce cellulite was submitted to the FDA as part of its 510K application. The data/application is under substantive review and a decision is anticipated in the near-term.
- In September 2020 SOLY entered into a distribution agreement with Aesthetic Solutions and tapped One Group to handle marketing for its product rollout next year
- In June 2020 the company raised $35M in an offering at $8.30 (-30% discount to the market price) bringing its total cash position to $37M as of 6/30/20.
- Management has stated that its cash on hand should fund operation into 4Q22 (18-months into its planned commercial launch)
- The stock pumped +8% today on what looks like shorts covering ahead of the news
- Support to watch $7.98
- Risk-estimate: Yellow
- PT= $9.50-12.0 (0-3 weeks)
- Clinical-stage pharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing products designed to enable the subcutaneous administration of therapies previously limited to intravenous (IV) delivery
- Selected for inclusion in the Russell 2000 index
- FDA accepted their NDA (New Drug Application) resubmission for FUROSCIX® on 7/27/20
- Provided a business update on October 8th, highlighting their sales team growth and positioning for success if approval is received in December
- Has recently been participating in investor conferences, highlighting the cost advantage potential if they receive approval in December
- Raise over $50million in offering in May at $8.65 per share, bringing their cash & equivalents up to $119million as per their latest earnings
- PDUFA scheduled for 12/30/20
- Monitoring for continued upside into this material event
- We are watching support at $8.70 and $8.20
- Risk estimate: Yellow
- PT = $9.50-10+ (1-6 weeks)
- Trade thesis intact
- Monitoring for entry and keeping a close eye on support at $5.19
- Clinical-stage gene therapy company targeting diseases that result from a genetic mutation and or deficiency
- The share price has been consolidating in the mid $5 range since ~9/16/20. With multiple data catalysts this quarter, the stock is set up for a breakout.
- On 9/9/20 management provided financial results for the fourth quarter ending 6/30/20 as well as an update on the company’s planned Phase 2/3 study in patients with X-linked Retinitis Pigmentosa (XLRP) (a rare genetic disease). Management stated that the study would start enrolling 1Q21 and should have top-line data 3Q21. New data at the higher doses in XLRP showed robust responder rates (i.e. efficacy). The company noted that it would be expanding the Phase 1/2 portion of the study to include another 12 patients.
- AGTC is on track to report Phase 1/2 data in both it’s XLRP and ACHM clinical programs 4Q20
- This summer the company significantly improved its production capacity and quality of its proprietary manufacturing process
- Positive preclinical data was published from the XLRP program in May 2020.
- Last week the CEO presented at the Alliance for Regenerative Medicine Cell & Gene Meeting on the Mesa. Later this month AGTC’s Chief Scientific Officer will be presenting at the Dry AMD Therapeutic Development Summit on 10/28/20. Click here to tune into the events.
- The company is in decent financial shape with $80M in cash and a burn of $14M/Q providing a runway into 4Q20,
- The last offering was in February of 2020 at $5/share. Considering this and AGTC’s cash position we feel there is a relatively high chance of an offering in the next 120 days.
- Risk estimate: Yellow
- PT= $6.0-6.50+ (0-4 weeks)
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